Handicapping the Oscars: Too close to call

86th_Academy_Awards_posterMan, I thought last year was tough. Well, this year is just as bad. Maybe even worse because at least there year there are some really obvious films that ought to walk away with a lot of awards (12 Years a Slave for all the big stuff, Her for stuff like writing, production design and music, Gravity for technical categories), but because Her is “weird” and 12 Years doesn’t pat white people on the back for ending racism in 1962, what should be obvious becomes occluded. Last year, the politics of campaigning mattered. This year it’s less about that and more about the sheer arbitrariness of taste. Continue reading “Handicapping the Oscars: Too close to call”

Award Shows 2013: The Golden Globes

Who will win, who should win. I feel a little at a disadvantage, though, because I still haven’t seen Zero Dark Thirty, which is obviously a major player.

Film

Best Picture – Dramadjango

Who will win: Lincoln

Who should win: Django Unchained

Lincoln was a good movie, but it didn’t even crack my top 10. I’d rather see something bold like Django  get the top prize, but I guess I’ll settle for “not Life of Pi” instead. Continue reading “Award Shows 2013: The Golden Globes”

Final Oscar predictions

Here’s the last round of Oscar predictions, including the “should wins”. I don’t expect upsets in the major categories, but there could be some surprises in the art/technical categories. I’m calling a King’s Speech/Social Network split with King’s Speech taking Best Picture. I also think we’ll be seeing Banksy—or something representing Banksy—on Oscar’s stage. Without further ado, here are the predictions. Continue reading “Final Oscar predictions”

Handicapping the Oscars for real

I engaged in some tomfoolery during my fall movie preview, assigning movies asinine Oscar odds that had no real bearing on anything since the movies weren’t out yet and I hadn’t seen most of them at that point. This marks my first effort at real handicapping. I’ll revisit this after the SAGs at some point and then do a final line right before the Oscars proper. I bet on these things. These odds—they’re how I’m placing my bets. So who I think WILL win and who I think SHOULD win are two different things. That’s why, in my final odds, I always post both options. For now, though, I’m sticking to the WILL wins, listed first, with odds decreasing after that. I’m also doing this without the input of my acquaintance who is a voting member of the Academy. He just texted to tell me he was bummed for Ryan Gosling, calling Blue Valentine a “duet” and saying he thought it was unfair to nominate Michelle Williams and not her on-screen partner. Oh well. It’s the Academy. Unfairness abounds. Continue reading “Handicapping the Oscars for real”

Award shows 2011: Golden Globes

 

This is the second round of Golden Globe guessing on Cinesnark and I’m sure it will go just as badly as the first round. Although this year the HFPA’s nominations were so insane that there’s kind of a free-for-all, anything can happen vibe happening. So maybe my mostly random guesses will hit the mark a little more often this time around. Here is a complete list of nominees. Term to know: “Dart category”, which is a category in which any nominee deserves the win. As in, “throw a dart, they’re all good”. Now on to the “who should wins” and the “who will wins”. Continue reading “Award shows 2011: Golden Globes”

Award Shows 2010: The 82nd Annual Academy Awards

I fucking hate the Oscars.

Let’s just put that on the table first. The broadcast is too long, too smug, not entertaining, and as I stated during the Golden Globes last month, all awards shows are by their very natures intolerable circle jerks of self-congratulation. The Oscars are the worst of the lot. It’s the longest, the smuggest, the masturbatoriest awards show of them all. Guaranteed the dual hosts, Steve Martin and Alec Baldwin, will fall flat more often than not throughout the night. There will be weepy speeches we can’t understand. Sean Penn will be presenting Best Actress, and I promise he will say something political that he thinks sounds smart but really just makes us all hate him even more. The broadcast will run long. Winners will begin snapping at the orchestra not to cut them off. Though the nominees for Best Original Song will not be performing this year, we will be subjected to multiple song and dance numbers. (Tip to the producers: Instead of depriving actual nominees of the chance to perform in order to save time, how about you scrap the song and dance numbers?) Continue reading “Award Shows 2010: The 82nd Annual Academy Awards”

Award shows 2010: Golden Globes

I do not like award shows. I have a hard time sitting through them. Let’s face it, unless you’re nominated to win something, or have money riding on it, an award show means nothing. They’re the single most masturbatory act in our culture. Let’s fill a room full of people who make more money than any of us will ever see doing something fairly ridiculous, and watch them hand each other awards and applaud one another on television. For FIVE HOURS.

No thanks. Continue reading “Award shows 2010: Golden Globes”