Highly Irregular Semi-Annual Oscar Predictions 2016

The Oscars are on Sunday, aka, The Night Leonardo DiCaprio Will Finally Win The One Popularity Contest That Has Eluded Him. This has been the tightest race in recent memory, with very few sure things. Best Picture is still wide open, the Supporting Actress race is closer than Alicia Vikander would like it to be, and the technical/craft categories are going to be an all-out brawl between The Revenant and Mad Max: Fury Road.


If I had my way, I’d give all the technical/craft Oscars to Mad Max: Fury Road, and also give George Miller Best Director and Mad Max Best Picture. Editing would go to The Big Short, and the screenplay awards would go to Spotlight and The Big Short. Michael Fassbender would be Best Actor, and Best Documentary would be The Look of Silence. But I don’t get my way, so these predictions are not based on what I think should happen, they’re based on what I think will happen. Where categories remain close, I’ve noted potential dark horse spoilers. Good luck in your Oscar pools, and happy gambling.

Best Picture

The Big Short

Potential Upset: The Revenant, Spotlight

Best Director

Alejandro González Iñárritu, The Revenant

Potential Upset: George Miller, Mad Max: Fury Road

Best Actor

Leonardo DiCaprio, The Revenant

bear attack

Best Actress

Brie Larson, Room

Best Supporting Actor

Sylvester Stallone, Creed

Potential Upset: Mark Rylance, Bridge of Spies

Best Supporting Actress

Alicia Vikander, The Danish Girl

Potential Upset: Kate Winslet, Steve Jobs


Best Original Screenplay

Spotlight (Josh Singer and Tom McCarthy)

Potential Upset: Inside Out (Pete Docter, Josh Cooley, and Meg LeFauve)

Best Adapted Screenplay

The Big Short (Charles Randolph and Adam McKay)

Best Cinematographer

Emmanuel Lubezki, The Revenant


Best Film Editing

Mad Max: Fury Road (Margaret Sixel)

Potential Upset: The Big Short (Hank Corwin)

Best Visual Effects

Star Wars: The Force Awakens

Potential Upset: Mad Max: Fury Road, The Revenant

Best Production Design

Mad Max: Fury Road

Potential Upset: The Revenant, Bridge of Spies


Best Costume Design


Potential Upset: Carol, Mad Max: Fury Road

Best Makeup and Hairstyling

Mad Max: Fury Road

Potential Upset: The Revenant

Best Score

The Hateful Eight (Ennio Morricone)


Best Sound Editing

Mad Max: Fury Road

Potential Upset: The Revenant, Star Wars: The Force Awakens

Best Sound Mixing

Mad Max: Fury Road

Potential Upset: The Revenant, Star Wars: The Force Awakens

Best Original Song

“Til It Happens to You”, The Hunting Ground


Best Foreign Language Film

Son of Saul

Best Animated Feature

Inside Out

Best Documentary Feature


Potential Upset: The Look of Silence


Best Live Action Short

Ave Maria

Potential Upset: Shok, Stutterer

Best Animated Short

Sanjay’s Super Team

Potential Upset: Bear Story

Best Documentary Short

Body Team 12

Potential Upset: Claude Lanzman: Specters of the Shoah


4 thoughts on “Highly Irregular Semi-Annual Oscar Predictions 2016

  1. I keep wondering what would’ve happened in the actress categories if not for category fraud. Alicia Vikander should’ve submitted The Danish Girl as lead (I argue it was Gerta’s viewpoint slightly less than Lili’s) and Ex Machina for supporting. I think she probably would’ve gotten both nods, and had a decent chance of winning lead.

    Also, I wish Anomalisa stood a chance for animated feature.

  2. ishkabibble

    Are you going to do the Ethels again this year? I always look forward to your perspectives on past oscar crimes.

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