Here’s the last round of Oscar predictions, including the “should wins”. I don’t expect upsets in the major categories, but there could be some surprises in the art/technical categories. I’m calling a King’s Speech/Social Network split with King’s Speech taking Best Picture. I also think we’ll be seeing Banksy—or something representing Banksy—on Oscar’s stage. Without further ado, here are the predictions.
Will win: The King’s Speech
Should win: Toy Story 3
After re-watching the nominees, I think Toy Story 3 should be the winner but a cartoon will never win this award.
Will win: David Fincher, The Social Network
Should win: The Coen brothers
It’s not that I don’t like The Social Network, because I really do, but it’s not Fincher’s best movie. Meanwhile, the Coens delivered a gorgeous Western with not just style but humor. I would also be fine with Tom Hooper (The King’s Speech) winning, but I think he’s too young. The Academy often favors experience over youth. I think there’s a feeling that Hooper can, and will, top this while Fincher is kind of getting a lifetime achievement award.
Will win: Colin Firth, The King’s Speech
Should win: Colin Firth, The King’s Speech
Will win: Natalie Portman, Black Swan
Should win: Natalie Portman, Black Swan
A lot of people think Bening left her effort too late and Portman had already built up too much of a lead, but after re-watching The Kids Are All Right, I think it’s more a case of Portman is just better this year. Bening was good in Kids but she was outshone by Julianne Moore. At this point, it’s not about wishing for an upset so much as wishing that Portman delivers another hilariously awkward acceptance speech.
Best Supporting Actor
Will win: Christian Bale, The Fighter
Should win: John Hawkes, Winter’s Bone
The Bale Express cannot be stopped.
Best Supporting Actress
Will win: Melissa Leo, The Fighter
Should win: Hailee Steinfeld, True Grit
Steinfeld completely blew me away. Really, she should be in the lead category, but she can best anyone in either group.
Best Animated Feature Film
Will win: Toy Story 3
Should win: Toy Story 3
Pixar’s Annual Oscar will go to Pixar. Surprise surprise.
Will win: Exit through the Gift Shop, Banksy and Jaimie DCruz
Should win: Exit through the Gift Shop, Banksy and Jaimie DCruz
Best Foreign Film
Will win: Mexico – Biutiful
Should win: Mexico — Biutiful
Best Original Screenplay
Will win: David Seidler, The King’s Speech
Should win: David Seidler, The King’s Speech
Best Adapted Screenplay
Will win: Aaron Sorkin, The Social Network
Should win: Aaron Sorkin, The Social Network
Will win: Roger Deakins, True Grit
Should win: Roger Deakins, True Grit
There’s a chance Inception’s Wally Pfister upsets here. Remote, but it could happen.
Best Film Editing
Will win: Angus Wall and Kirk Baxter, The Social Network
Should win: Pamela Martin, The Fighter
What a dumb win this is going to be. I wouldn’t have nominated TSN in favor of Scott Pilgrim vs. The World, in which editing was a vital component of the final look of the film. TSN was nicely edited, but was that what made the film look so great? No.
Best Art Direction
Will win: Eve Stewart & Judy Farr, The King’s Speech
Should win: Jess Gonchor & Nany Haigh, True Grit
The King’s Speech is basically winning this for the wall in Lionel’s office.
Best Costume Design
Will win: Colleen Atwood, Alice in Wonderland
Should win: Colleen Atwood, Alice in Wonderland
The costumes in Alice were awesome. I really want to go as the White Queen for Halloween. This is one of those categories where you can pick up a spot in your pool since most people are predicting The King’s Speech will win.
Will win: Rick Baker and Dave Elsey, The Wolfman
Should win: Adrien Morot, Barney’s Version
I’ve figured out the method to predicting this category. One of the worst movies of the year is sure to be nominated, then that movie will win.
Best Original Score
Will win: Trent Reznor and Atticus Ross, The Social Network
Should win: John Powell, How to Train Your Dragon
Best Original Song
Will win: “We Belong Together” from Toy Story 3, Music and Lyric by Randy Newman
Should win: “If I Rise” from 127 Hours, Music by A.R. Rahman Lyric by Dido and Rollo Armstrong
Best Sound Editing
Will win: Richard King, Inception
Should win: Richard King, Inception
The sound categories will account for two of Inception’s Oscar three wins.
Best Sound Mixing
Will win: Lora Hirschberg, Gary A. Rizzo and Ed Novick, Inception
Should win: Lora Hirschberg, Gary A. Rizzo and Ed Novick, Inception
Will win: Inception
Should win: Inception
The third Inception Oscar.
Best Short Film – Animated
Will win: The Gruffalo, Jakob Schuh and Max Lang
Should win: Madagascar, carnet de voyage (Madagascar, a Journey Diary), Bastien Dubois
The Gruffalo is the popular pick but Madagascar was better.
Best Short Film – Live Action
Will win: God of Love, Luke Matheny
Should win: Na Wewe, Ivan Goldschmidt
Best Documentary – Short Subject
Will win: Killing in the Name, Jed Rothstein
Should win: The Warriors of Qiugang, Ruby Yang and Thomas Lennon