Final Oscar predictions

Here’s the last round of Oscar predictions, including the “should wins”. I don’t expect upsets in the major categories, but there could be some surprises in the art/technical categories. I’m calling a King’s Speech/Social Network split with King’s Speech taking Best Picture. I also think we’ll be seeing Banksy—or something representing Banksy—on Oscar’s stage. Without further ado, here are the predictions.

Best Picture

Will win: The King’s Speech

Should win: Toy Story 3

After re-watching the nominees, I think Toy Story 3 should be the winner but a cartoon will never win this award.

Best Director

Will win: David Fincher, The Social Network

Should win: The Coen brothers

It’s not that I don’t like The Social Network, because I really do, but it’s not Fincher’s best movie. Meanwhile, the Coens delivered a gorgeous Western with not just style but humor. I would also be fine with Tom Hooper (The King’s Speech) winning, but I think he’s too young. The Academy often favors experience over youth. I think there’s a feeling that Hooper can, and will, top this while Fincher is kind of getting a lifetime achievement award.

Best Actor

Will win: Colin Firth, The King’s Speech

Should win: Colin Firth, The King’s Speech

Best Actress

Will win: Natalie Portman, Black Swan

Should win: Natalie Portman, Black Swan

A lot of people think Bening left her effort too late and Portman had already built up too much of a lead, but after re-watching The Kids Are All Right, I think it’s more a case of Portman is just better this year. Bening was good in Kids but she was outshone by Julianne Moore. At this point, it’s not about wishing for an upset so much as wishing that Portman delivers another hilariously awkward acceptance speech.

Best Supporting Actor

Will win: Christian Bale, The Fighter

Should win: John Hawkes, Winter’s Bone

The Bale Express cannot be stopped.

Best Supporting Actress

Will win: Melissa Leo, The Fighter

Should win: Hailee Steinfeld, True Grit

Steinfeld completely blew me away. Really, she should be in the lead category, but she can best anyone in either group.

Best Animated Feature Film

Will win: Toy Story 3

Should win: Toy Story 3

Pixar’s Annual Oscar will go to Pixar. Surprise surprise.

Best Documentary

Will win: Exit through the Gift Shop, Banksy and Jaimie DCruz

Should win: Exit through the Gift Shop, Banksy and Jaimie DCruz

Best Foreign Film

Will win: Mexico – Biutiful

Should win: Mexico — Biutiful

Best Original Screenplay

Will win: David Seidler, The King’s Speech

Should win: David Seidler, The King’s Speech

Best Adapted Screenplay

Will win: Aaron Sorkin, The Social Network

Should win: Aaron Sorkin, The Social Network

Best Cinematography

Will win: Roger Deakins, True Grit

Should win: Roger Deakins, True Grit

There’s a chance Inception’s Wally Pfister upsets here. Remote, but it could happen.

Best Film Editing

Will win: Angus Wall and Kirk Baxter, The Social Network

Should win: Pamela Martin, The Fighter

What a dumb win this is going to be. I wouldn’t have nominated TSN in favor of Scott Pilgrim vs. The World, in which editing was a vital component of the final look of the film. TSN was nicely edited, but was that what made the film look so great? No.

Best Art Direction

Will win: Eve Stewart & Judy Farr, The King’s Speech

Should win: Jess Gonchor & Nany Haigh, True Grit

The King’s Speech is basically winning this for the wall in Lionel’s office.

Best Costume Design

Will win: Colleen Atwood, Alice in Wonderland

Should win: Colleen Atwood, Alice in Wonderland

The costumes in Alice were awesome. I really want to go as the White Queen for Halloween. This is one of those categories where you can pick up a spot in your pool since most people are predicting The King’s Speech will win.

Best Makeup

Will win: Rick Baker and Dave Elsey, The Wolfman

Should win: Adrien Morot, Barney’s Version

I’ve figured out the method to predicting this category. One of the worst movies of the year is sure to be nominated, then that movie will win.

Best Original Score

Will win: Trent Reznor and Atticus Ross, The Social Network

Should win: John Powell, How to Train Your Dragon

BRAAAAHHHMMM

Best Original Song

Will win: “We Belong Together” from Toy Story 3, Music and Lyric by Randy Newman

Should win: “If I Rise” from 127 Hours, Music by A.R. Rahman Lyric by Dido and Rollo Armstrong

BRAAAAHHHMMM

Best Sound Editing

Will win: Richard King, Inception

Should win: Richard King, Inception

The sound categories will account for two of Inception’s Oscar three wins.

Best Sound Mixing

Will win: Lora Hirschberg, Gary A. Rizzo and Ed Novick, Inception

Should win: Lora Hirschberg, Gary A. Rizzo and Ed Novick, Inception

Visual Effects

Will win: Inception

Should win: Inception

The third Inception Oscar.

Best Short Film – Animated

Will win: The Gruffalo, Jakob Schuh and Max Lang

Should win: Madagascar, carnet de voyage (Madagascar, a Journey Diary), Bastien Dubois

The Gruffalo is the popular pick but Madagascar was better.

Best Short Film – Live Action

Will win: God of Love, Luke Matheny

Should win: Na Wewe, Ivan Goldschmidt

Best Documentary – Short Subject

Will win: Killing in the Name, Jed Rothstein

Should win: The Warriors of Qiugang, Ruby Yang and Thomas Lennon

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One thought on “Final Oscar predictions

  1. Pingback: Final Oscar predictions « CineSnark | Cartoon World

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