Post-SAG Oscar Handicaps

That sounds like a post-operative procedure for plastic surgery, doesn’t it? Well there’s been a bit of a shake-up in the predictions since the SAG Awards. In the wake of The King’s Speech win for Best Cast Ensemble there, and following wins at the Directors’ Guild and Producers’ Guild, The King’s Speech takes over as the Oscar favorite. We now have a two-horse race heading into the Oscars at the end of the month between guild favorite The King’s Speech (the Writers’ Guild weighs in this weekend) and critical darling The Social Network.

But do we have an upset coming? Not unless Toy Story 3, The Kids Are All Right or Winter’s Bone pulls out the win. Between The King’s Speech and The Social Network it’s two of the most well-received films of the year. Throw a dart—either one is an acceptable winner. It’s just a matter of personal taste, which one you think deserves to be Best Picture. Most of the major categories and many of the technical/artistic ones are going to be decided between these two. And that’s boring right? Of course it is. But this is how it goes most every year. Everyone loses their shit for one or two movies and it/they win all the hardware. But where are we with these movies in five years? That’s for another day. On to the second round of Oscar handicaps.

Best Picture

The King’s Speech

The Social Network

The Fighter

True Grit

Black Swan

The Kids Are All Right

127 Hours

Inception

Winter’s Bone

Toy Story 3

Best Director

Tom Hooper, The King’s Speech

David Fincher, The Social Network

Joel & Ethan Coen, True Grit

David O. Russell, The Fighter

Darren Aronofsky, Black Swan

Best Actor

Colin Firth, The King’s Speech

James Franco, 127 Hours

Javier Bardem, Biutiful

Jesse Eisenberg, The Social Network

Jeff Bridges, True Grit

Best Actress

Natalie Portman, Black Swan

Annette Bening, The Kids Are All Right

Nicole Kidman, Rabbit Hole

Michelle Williams, Blue Valentine

Jennifer Lawrence, Winter’s Bone

Best Supporting Actor

Christian Bale, The Fighter

Geoffrey Rush, The King’s Speech

John Hawkes, Winter’s Bone*

Jeremy Renner, The Town

Mark Ruffalo, The Kids Are All Right

*As much as I want Hawkes to win, he’s not. Bale is unstoppable.

Best Supporting Actress

Melissa Leo, The Fighter

Jacki Weaver, Animal Kingdom

Hailee Steinfeld, True Grit

Helena Bonham Carter, The King’s Speech

Amy Adams, The Fighter

Best Animated Feature Film

Toy Story 3

How to Train Your Dragon

The Illusionist (L’Illusionniste)

Best Documentary

Exit through the Gift Shop, Banksy and Jaimie DCruz

Restrepo, Tim Hetherington and Sebastian Junger

Inside Job, Charles Ferguson and Audrey Marrs

Gasland, Josh Fox and Trish Adlesic

Waste Land, Lucy Walker and Angus Aynsley

Best Foreign Film

Mexico – Biutiful

Denmark – In a Better World

Canada – Incendies

Algeria – Outside the Law

Greece – Dogtooth

Best Original Screenplay

David Seidler, The King’s Speech

Christopher Nolan, Inception

Scott Silver and Paul Tamsay & Eric Johnson, The Fighter

Mike Leigh, Another Year

Lisa Cholodenko & Stuart Blumberg, The Kids Are All Right

Best Adapted Screenplay

Aaron Sorkin, The Social Network

Joel & Ethan Coen, True Grit

Danny Boyle & Simon Beaufoy, 127 Hours

Michael Arndt, Toy Story 3

Debra Granik & Anne Rosellini, Winter’s Bone

Best Cinematography

Roger Deakins, True Grit

Danny Cohen, The King’s Speech

Jeff Cronenweth, The Social Network

Matthew Libatique, Black Swan

Wally Pfister, Inception

Best Film Editing

Tariq Anwar, The King’s Speech

Pamela Martin, The Fighter

Andrew Weisblum, Black Swan

Angus Wall and Kirk Baxter, The Social Network

Jon Harris, 127 Hours

Best Art Direction

Eve Stewart & Judy Farr, The King’s Speech

Jess Gonchor & Nany Haigh, True Grit

Guy Hendrix Dyas, Larry Dias & Doug Mowat, Inception

Stuart Craig & Stephenie McMillan, Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part I

Robert Stromberg & Karen O’Hara, Alice in Wonderland

Best Costume Design

Jenny Beavan, The King’s Speech

Mary Zophres, True Grit

Colleen Atwood, Alice in Wonderland

Antonella Cannarozzi, I Am Love (Io sono l’amore)

Sandy Powell, The Tempest

Best Makeup

Adrien Morot, Barney’s Version

Rick Baker and Dave Elsey, The Wolfman

Edouard F. Henriques, Gregory Funk and Yolando Toussieng, The Way Back

Best Original Score

Alexandre Desplat, The King’s Speech

Trent Reznor and Atticus Ross, The Social Network

Hans Zimmer, Inception

John Powell, How to Train Your Dragon

A.R. Rahman, 127 Hours

Best Original Song

“We Belong Together” from Toy Story 3, Music and Lyric by Randy Newman

“I See the Light” from Tangled, Music by Alan Menken Lyric by Glenn Slater

“Coming Home” from Country Strong, Music and Lyric by Tom Douglas, Troy Verges and Hillary Lindsey

“If I Rise” from 127 Hours, Music by A.R. Rahman Lyric by Dido and Rollo Armstrong

Best Sound Editing

Richard King, Inception

Mark P. Stoeckinger, Unstoppable

Skip Lievsay and Craig Berkey, True Grit

Gwendolyn Yates Whittle and Addison Teague, TRON: Legacy

Tom Myers and Michael Silvers, Toy Story 3

Best Sound Mixing

Lora Hirschberg, Gary A. Rizzo and Ed Novick, Inception

Paul Hamblin, Martin Jensen and John Midgley, The King’s Speech

Ren Klyce, David Parker, Michael Semanick and Mark Weingarten, The Social Network

Skip Lievsay, Craig Berkey, Greg Orloff and Peter F. Kurland, True Grit

Jeffrey J. Haboush, Greg P. Russell, Scott Millan and William Sarokin, Salt

Visual Effects

Inception

Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 1

Alice in Wonderland

Iron Man 2

Hereafter

Best Short Film – Animated*

Madagascar, carnet de voyage (Madagascar, a Journey Diary), Bastien Dubois

Day & Night, Teddy Newton

The Gruffalo, Jakob Schuh and Max Lang

Let’s Pollute, Geefwee Boedoe

The Lost Thing, Shaun Tan and Andrew Ruhemann

Best Short Film – Live Action*

Na Wewe, Ivan Goldschmidt

The Confession, Tanel Toom

The Crush, Michael Creagh

God of Love, Luke Matheny

Wish 143, Ian Barnes and Samantha Waite

Best Documentary – Short Subject*

Strangers No More, Karen Goodman and Kirk Simon

Killing in the Name, Nominees to be determined

Poster Girl, Nominees to be determined

Sun Come Up, Jennifer Redfearn and Tim Metzger

The Warriors of Qiugang, Ruby Yang and Thomas Lennon

*Beginning to hear from people who’ve seen these and will hopefully get a look at a few myself soon.

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One thought on “Post-SAG Oscar Handicaps

  1. Ellie

    I have seen the Gruffalo MANY MANY TIMES. My two-year-old LOVES it. It’s a great adaptation of the book — the timing is gentle and the content, while theoretically frightening, is presented a delightful way. I like how it presents things slowly so that the child has time to absorb the image instead of giving them crazy flash cuts that always make me think the kid will end up with ADD/ADHD.

    I really hope it wins. Mostly so they can make a short out of the not-so-great sequel and buy us some more quiet time in the house. 😉

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