Award Shows 2013: The Golden Globes
Who will win, who should win. I feel a little at a disadvantage, though, because I still haven’t seen Zero Dark Thirty, which is obviously a major player.
Film
Best Picture – Drama
Who will win: Lincoln
Who should win: Django Unchained
Lincoln was a good movie, but it didn’t even crack my top 10. I’d rather see something bold like Django get the top prize, but I guess I’ll settle for “not Life of Pi” instead.
Best Picture – Comedy or Musical
Who will win: Les Miserables
Who should win: Les Miserables
I’d be happy with a Moonrise Kingdom win, too, but this category exists for movies like Les Miserables to win, and I don’t think there’s any question that it will do so.
Best Director
Who will win: Ben Affleck, Argo
Who should win: Not Ben Affleck
This is a category where I think Kathryn Bigelow is probably the most deserving, but as I haven’t seen ZDT, I can’t say for sure. I can say this—Affleck achieved a career high with Argo, but he will do better down the road. He’s still developing as a director and while I think Argo is deserving of nominations, giving him the trophy now feels like anticipating the moment.
Best Actor – Drama
Who will win: Daniel Day-Lewis, Lincoln
Who should win: Daniel Day-Lewis, Lincoln
You could make a case for Joaquin Phoenix (The Master) or the un-nominated Jamie Foxx (Django Unchained), but DDL gave a tremendous performance as Lincoln and I have no problem with him winning for it.
Best Actress – Drama
Who will win: Jessica Chastain, Zero Dark Thirty
Who should win: Any of the nominees
This category has turned out more competitive than it initially seemed, and any of the nominees (Helen Mirren, Rachel Weisz, Naomi Watts and Marion Cotillard are the others) would make a deserving winner. I wouldn’t be totally shocked by Watts upset.
Best Actor – Comedy or Musical
Who will win: Hugh Jackman, Les Miserables
Who should win: Hugh Jackman, Les Miserables
Jack Black was very impressive in Bernie, but Jackman has destiny on his side—it feels like his whole career built to him playing Jean Valjean, and in the softer competition of this split category, this should be an easy takeaway for him.
Best Actress – Comedy or Musical
Who will win: Jennifer Lawrence, Silver Linings Playbook
Who should win: Jennifer Lawrence, Silver Linings Playbook
Like Jackman, Lawrence benefits from weak competition in the split category and should be a lock. She’ll have a lot tougher competition at the Oscars when she’s thrown in with the likes of Chastain and Watts.
Best Supporting Actor
Who will win: Leonardo DiCaprio, Django Unchained
Who should win: Phillip Seymour Hoffman, The Master
DiCaprio was good in Django, and clearly loved playing the villain, but this win, which is pretty well inevitable, has more to do with the HFPA being in love with him than his performance actually outmatching Hoffman’s (which it doesn’t). Don’t rule out a Tommy Lee Jones win.
Best Supporting Actress
Who will win: Anne Hathaway, Les Miserables
Who should win: Anne Hathaway, Les Miserables
She was tremendous as Fantine. The end.
Hathaway ought to walk away with this one, but I don’t think the Oscars will be as easy to take. The Academy likes Sally Field a lot. They really, really like her a lot.
Best Screenplay
Who will win: Tony Kushner, Lincoln
Who should win: Quentin Tarantino, Django Unchained
This really ought to go to Rian Johnson for Looper, but he didn’t even get nominated.
Best Animated Feature Film
Who will win: Frankenweenie
Who should win: Wreck-It Ralph
I don’t think the HFPA will be able to resist giving Tim Burton a trophy for making a movie that neither sucked nor starred Johnny Depp, but of their nominee pool, Wreck-It Ralph is the better movie (The Pirates! Band of Misfits is best of all).
Best Foreign Language Film
Who will win: Amour
Who should win: Amour
Michael Haneke’s Amour really ought to be in consideration for the big prize, so it’s a lock for the Foreign Language award. The Intouchables is strong competition, but Amour has legendary French actors Jean-Louis Trintignant and Emmanuelle Riva, as well as Haneke, a favorite on the international scene.
Best Original Score
Who will win: John Williams, Lincoln
Who should win: Reinhold Heil & Johnny Kilmek, Cloud Atlas
This is another one I don’t think they’ll be able to resist giving it to the most obvious nominee, in this case, Williams’ score for Lincoln. But the Heil/Kilmek score for Cloud Atlas is extraordinary not only as a movie score but also as an independent piece of music. It plays like a symphony and is my favorite score in years.
Best Original Song
Who will win: Adele, “Skyfall” (Skyfall)
Who should win: Adele, “Skyfall” (Skyfall)
Adele’s Midas touch will extend to the HFPA, but I’m only content with her winning for her Bond theme because none of the original songs from Django Unchained were nominated. Adele’s song is one of the better Bond themes, but Django has several really great original songs, chief among them the Rick Ross/Jamie Foxx collaboration “100 Black Coffins”, John Legend’s “Who Did That to You?”, and the Ennio Morricone/Elisa number “Ancora Qui”.
Television
Best Series – Drama
Who will win: Homeland
Who should win: Breaking Bad
I don’t think there’s any stopping the Homeland train, but I don’t see how Breaking Bad doesn’t get all the awards until it’s off the air.
Best Series – Comedy or Musical
Who will win: Girls
Who should win: Modern Family
Like Homeland, there’s no stopping Girls. That said, the funniest shows on TV aren’t even nominated (Archer, Wilfred, Parks & Rec), so this category means precisely squat.
Best Actor – Drama
Who will win: Damian Lewis, Homeland
Who should win: Damian Lewis, Homeland
I’m not crazy about Homeland, but I can never begrudge Lewis anything. I really loved Life.
Best Actress – Drama
Who will win: Claire Danes, Homeland
Who should win: Claire Danes, Homeland
One, the HFPA loves Danes, and two, of their nominee pool, she is the best.
Best Actor – Comedy or Musical
Who will win: Louis CK, Louie
Who should win: Louis CK, Louie
Though the HFPA is crazy and highly susceptible to bribes, they sometimes tune into something before anyone else does, and I think they’ll be the first to reward CK for his acting, which is better than people give him credit for.
Best Actress – Comedy or Musical
Who will win: Julia Louis-Dreyfus, Veep
Who should win: Amy Poehler, Parks & Recreation
Just not Lena Dunham. Please.
Best Mini-Series or Movie
Who will win: Game Change
Who should win: The Hour
I wouldn’t rule out Hatfields and McCoys, but I think the HFPA will go with the more politically charged option.
Best Actor – Mini-Series or Movie
Who will win: Benedict Cumberbatch, Sherlock
Who should win: Benedict Cumberbatch, Sherlock
This is another example of where the HFPA will get ahead of everyone else and single out Cumberbatch before he does a victory lap in 2014 after Sherlock series three airs.
Best Actress – Mini-Series or Movie
Who will win: Julianne Moore, Game Change
Who should win: Julianne Moore, Game Change
I really don’t see this going any other way.
Best Supporting Actor
Who will win: Ed Harris, Game Change
Who should win: Max Greenfield, New Girl
Don’t count out Mandy Patinkin, but it’s Greenfield who really deserves it for his stellar comic work as Schmidt. Not only was he the breakout in what was meant to be Zooey Deschanel’s vanity project but he’s made Schmidt a cultural touchstone.
Best Supporting Actress
Who will win: Maggie Smith, Downton Abbey
Who should win: Maggie Smith, Downton Abbey
I daren’t go against the Dowager Countess.
January 11, 2013 at 11:15 AM
Do you think Joaquin has a shot in hell?
January 11, 2013 at 11:46 AM
LOL @ your Sally Field comment. Well played.
January 11, 2013 at 1:06 PM
Off topic, but I loved Life too. Feels like I’m the only one who watched it.
January 11, 2013 at 1:12 PM
I didn’t watch it when it was on TV (so I am part of the problem), but thanks to Netflix I got to revisit it. Of all the “cop drama with a TWIST” that have come and gone, that was easily the best and most interesting one.
January 13, 2013 at 8:57 PM
I’m reading the Lainey site liveblog on the GGs and your comments are by far by the most banal – Didn’t she hire you because you were a professional Kristin Stewart fangirl? No hate on Lainey for needing to pay the bills (/up the page views), but come on.